Masterclass | Drought in a Future Climate

Although global precipitation is projected to increase during the 21st Century, there is a growing body of evidence that drought will become significantly more common in a future, warmer climate. To explain the apparent contradiction, this talk will describe what drought is, how it develops and what triggers severe events. Model simulations of present and future climate will be used to explore how warmer temperatures, combined with changing seasonality can lead to aridification, even in regions where annual precipitation is projected to increase. Worsening drought may have a devastating effect on the vulnerable populations of the global south. With this in mind, the final part of the talk will reflect on how sub-seasonal - seasonal forecasts may mitigate these impacts, and ultimately build resilience to climate change.